A third wave of coronavirus could occur in late summer or fall if the next steps to exit the lockdown continue as planned, scientists have warned the government.
Modeling by Imperial College’s COVID-19[female[feminine The response team also found that there could be a “small wave” of hospital admissions and an estimated 9,000 additional deaths by June 2022 if steps three and four of the roadmap work together. continue as planned.
They said the timing and size of a third wave will depend on transmission levels between May 17, when third step occurs, and on June 21, when the fourth stage is to take place.
But, if worrisome variants emerge that are comparable to the Kent variant, a third wave could be “considerably larger” – both in terms of hospital admissions and deaths – than the peak of winter 2021. , the researchers said.
“In view of the high use of the vaccine observed so far, most deaths are expected to occur in those vaccinated, due to the imperfect efficacy of the vaccine,” the report said.
Dr Anne Cori, of Imperial College, said the small predicted third wave could be “considerably larger” if worrying variants are imported into the UK.
“Limiting these imports will be essential in the coming months,” she added.
The team, whose modeling is used by the government to decide when to ease restrictions, said the third-stage restrictions should maintain an R-number – the number of people to whom an infected person transmits the virus – about 1. the epidemic is increasing and below one means it is declining.
Hospital admissions and deaths could be kept at “very low levels” in stage three, scientists say.
Staying at the third step could also “mitigate a third wave if a worrying variant emerges that could partially escape the vaccines and immunity of the previous ones …”
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This notice was published: 2021-05-11 15:07:00