War will shrink Ukraine’s economy by 45%, World Bank says Business

ggood morning.

The World Bank issued dire forecasts for Ukraine and Russia this year in the wake of the war, warning that the outlook could become even bleaker if the conflict drags on.

Ukraine’s economy will collapse 45.1% this year, the bank predicted, much worse than the 10% to 35% slowdown predicted by the IMF last month. Russia’s GDP is expected to fall by 11.2%

In a more pessimistic scenario, which reflects an escalation of the conflict, there would be a greater negative impact on the euro zone, increased Western sanctions and a financial shock due to the erosion of confidence.

The region’s economy would shrink by almost 9% – worse than the 2008 global financial crisis – with Russia shrinking 20% ​​and Ukraine collapsing 75%, the report said.

5 things to start your day

1) Up to 40,000 public service jobs are at risk: The number of civil servants has jumped by more than a fifth to 485,000 in the past seven years in response to Covid and Brexit

2) Russians cut spending as sanctions hit economy: Spending falls 10% as economists expect Russia to be hit by a deep two-year recession

3) Airlines brace for £100m bill following Easter travel chaos: More flight cancellations expected next week as Easter travel chaos continues

4) Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Marine Le Pen’s National Socialism is a powerful political mix: Emmanuel Macron’s opponent’s economic agenda is a celebration of the welfare state and the French social model

5) Twitter must wean itself off advertising, says Elon Musk: Biggest shareholder calls for price cuts and improvements to Twitter’s paid subscription service

What happened overnight

Asian stocks fell on Monday, while the euro edged higher as the far right lost the first round of the French presidential election.

The Japanese Nikkei fell 0.6pc after losing 2.6pc last week, while Chinese blue chips lost 1.8pc.

coming today

• Company: Sirius Real Estate (commercial statement)
• Economy: GDP (UK)industrial production (UK)manufacturing (UK)consumer price index (China)