The UK could be ready for a glorious summer this year as office met predicts “warmer than average” conditions over the next few months, with chances of a Heat wave higher than normal.
This follows an early heat wave in Aprhe which saw temperatures reach up to 23C in parts of the southeast, before turning gray and mostly drizzly towards the end of the month.
However, the Met Office’s three-month summer forecast will lift spirits, as weather experts say the chance of ‘hot weather’ is double that of other years.
Here’s a look at the weather the Met Office has predicted for the summer and the temperatures it will be in May, June and July.
What are the forecasts for the next three months?
The Met Office published its three-month outlook on Sunday May 1.
It indicates that the probability that the next few months will be warm is higher than normal, as well as the impacts of heat waves are more likely. He added that there will be a slight reduction in the risk of a wet spell.
In terms of numbers, the Met Office predicts that over the next three months there is a 40% chance of the season being hot, twice the normal chance.
There is a 50% chance that the season will be close to average, 0.8 times below the normal average.
The Met Office has predicted there will be a 10% chance of a cool season, while there is a 15% chance of a wet season.
Overall, the next few months are likely to have warmer than average conditions.
What did the Met Office say?
The Met Office said: “Although this does not necessarily mean that heat waves will occur, it does increase the likelihood of heat waves compared to normal, particularly in June and July.
“Even with a slight reduction in the chance of a wet spell, periods of wetter weather are likely to bring heavy showers or thunderstorms at times.”
The Met Office added that their forecast is consistent in suggesting an increase in the likelihood of temperatures being above average overall.
However, they noted that there are mixed signals as to whether the high pressure will be centered over the UK or further south.
The outlook suggests the risk of heatwaves is higher than normal, but the Met Office said “a range of conditions much less extreme than heatwaves is also possible”.
“The increased likelihood of warm conditions could just as well reflect a mix of warm and cool days, warm nights or less extreme heat levels rather than heat wave conditions in particular,” they added.
What are the forecasts for May 2022?
Saturday May 7 – Monday May 16
The Met Office is predicting stable weather for much of this period, with dry conditions in many parts, particularly in the south.
Northern regions are more likely to see showers with sometimes heavier rains and strong winds.
Temperatures are likely to remain above average except on the coast and in the far north which will experience slightly cooler conditions.
Coastal areas may also experience periods of low cloud or fog.
The very end of the period could see a shift to slightly more unsettled conditions, bringing periods of rain or showers more widely across the country.
Monday May 16 – Monday May 30
The drop in pressure is more likely in the second half of May, with periods of rain or showers for the most part.
However, some drier episodes are still possible in the south.
Temperatures are expected to remain near or above normal throughout.
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This notice was published: 2022-05-02 15:25:43