A strong performance in the south in local elections, including a snappy victory in Somerset, has emboldened Lib Dem hopes. Sir Ed says the party has opportunities in areas that have been “taken for granted” by the Tories.
“We talk to people who share our values, but who may have voted Conservative before, but who actually look at us and say ‘you know what, these guys have always been strong in these areas’.”
Justice Secretary Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton and Jeremy Hunt, currently the bookmakers’ favorite to succeed Boris Johnson as Tory leader in south-west Surrey, are high-profile MPs under threat if there has a swing to the Lib Dems in those seats. The former only has a majority of 2,700 while the latter has an advantage of 8,800 which was halved by the Lib Dems in the 2019 election.
Others at risk on the Lib Dem’s list of misfits are Tories calling on the Prime Minister to leave, including
Stephen Hammond at Wimbledon and William Wragg at Hazel Grove.
Former Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable said: “We have the reaffirmation of the old guerrilla army approach to politics.
“We obviously find it very difficult to compete nationally under the first-past-the-post system. But if we focus all of our resources where we are strong or have a potential breakthrough, we can do spectacular things.
He says any resurgence in the south “isn’t just an overnight thing,” but a resumption of a recovery that began under his leadership. Sir Vince says it was all ‘thrown away’ in the party’s ‘disastrous’ 2019 election under Jo Swinson, a defeat he blames on middle-class fears over Jeremy Corbyn’s job instead than a failed Lib Dem campaign.
One theory is that the political realignment that emerged in the 2019 election is only half done. Some believe that by driving tanks across Labor’s lawn, the Tories have left their own backyard exposed.
As working-class Brexit voters turn blue in the north, in the south the Tories face threats on two fronts. Labor voters leaving the capital to find affordable housing are moving into Tory counties while the Lib Dems are gaining ground in support for the rest and anti-housing areas.
A Tory MP in a southern seat with a dwindling majority avoids speaking publicly about Brexit for fear of defeat.
“I have to win a marginal seat and I’m not going to win a marginal seat by eliminating the remaining voters,” the MP said.
“I’m in a seat leaning over the rest with a lot of angry voters and I can’t keep pushing them away.”
Lord Barwell, Theresa May’s chief of staff at No 10 and a former Conservative minister, agrees that a political realignment in Britain has long been underway, one that is sweeping other countries, including the United States.
“I think for about 20 years there has been a realignment going on. I think Brexit actually acted as a catalyst, so socio-economic class is no longer a good predictor of voting intention.
“It opened up a bunch of old industrial centres, working class seats in the Midlands and the North for the Tories. But there is a flip side to this in London and in some of those south-eastern seats.
He believes Tory counterattacks in the south will be based on a ‘replay’ of the 2015 election campaign where fears were stoked of a ‘coalition of chaos’ led by Ed Miliband’s Labour.
Even so, the main talking point in Devon is not a big realignment of British politics, but Johnson and his run from No 10.
Emma Ranson-Bellamy, owner of clothing store Tiverton Snob, backs the Lib Dem candidate, saying the party can “bring a balance” between Tories and Labour. She said, “If you put a monkey in the palace, the monkey doesn’t become king. The palace becomes a circus. This is exactly what is happening right now. »
While the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates would rather say the campaign was about politics and governance, they admit that Partygate has repeatedly come back to the doorstep.
Ms Hurford, the Tory candidate, said: ‘Of course it’s coming back. It comes back less, especially after this week and the vote of confidence.
“I think people just really want to crack. We have a cost of living crisis, they want to know what I’m going to do about it.
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Source: www.telegraph.co.uk
This notice was published: 2022-06-12 05:00:00
