Much of the recovery is artificial then, but as long as oil and gas revenues continue to flow into the country, Russia can continue to rebuild its hard currency reserves and eventually weather the storm.
“Self-sanctioning” in the shipping industry has been a resounding failure. Tankers continue to arrive at Russian ports.
Traffic in March was only slightly lower than it was a year ago and higher than it was in the same month in 2016 and 2015, according to research by the Institute for International Finance .
Even when the discount on Russian crude is taken into account, oil revenues are near record highs, according to the IIF.
This does not mean that the sanctions were without effect. Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% drop in Russia this year, while Barclays predicts a 12.4% fall.
But while Barclays expects a further decline of 3.5% in 2023, Goldman thinks growth will already have returned with GDP rising 2.4% and forecast a record current account surplus of $200 billion. dollars by the end of the year.
The West must spring into action, pressing its advantage with a new round of sanctions that are utterly devastating the Russian economy, starting with a full energy embargo. Without this, the sanctions will eventually fail.
Germany could withstand the shock, its own economy minister Robert Habeck admitted it could at least get through the summer with supplies from Russia.
She’s just too scared to inflict further hardship on the German people, but if Lithuania and Poland are ready to do it, why wouldn’t Europe’s biggest economy? They are even more dependent on oil and gas from the Kremlin.
It may not come to that of course if Putin follows through on the threat to turn off the taps on Friday because the West refuses to meet Russian demands to pay for the gas in rubles.
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Source: www.telegraph.co.uk
This notice was published: 2022-03-31 16:52:14
