Officials expect inflation to average 6.1% over the year, before slowing to 2.8% in 2023.
Joachim Lang, head of the BDI Federation of German Industries, said “a short-term recovery is not in sight.”
He warned that the German economy faces a “twin crisis” from soaring energy prices and lockdowns in China as Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy backfires.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said Germany was not yet in recession territory but was suffering from “stagflation”.
He said: “The risk of recession would come into serious play if either of the two things went wrong.
“The first is if the Chinese Covid [lockdown] the situation is getting worse… the other risk of recession is an immediate halt to Russian gas deliveries to Europe.
Surveys of private economists by Bloomberg indicate a 30% chance that Germany will soon enter recession, and 35% for the eurozone as a whole.
Despite plummeting consumer confidence, Mr Schmieding said there was no sign of Germans abandoning plans for summer getaways now that restrictions have eased.
He said: “If it weren’t for this factor of reopening post-Covid and returning to normal behavior, Germany would probably already be in recession.”
French business confidence also plummeted ahead of the recent election, falling to the lowest since 2018.
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Source: www.telegraph.co.uk
This notice was published: 2022-04-27 16:48:32
