However, we are also already out of the recession. GDP fell in March and April, then returned to low growth in May as businesses reopened, and strong growth in June as the recovery really began.
Adding up data takes time, and the “ official ” definition of a recession really works best when you consider a normal business cycle, not the new world of a lockdown in which entire industries are shut down. overnight.
Now that they have been restored, GDP has jumped 8.7% in June and about a third of the blow has been canceled so far.
It always means there is a big hole in the numbers. The economy’s output in June was barely above that of the worst months of the financial crisis.
But with the hospitality industry reopening in July, which is in the third quarter and therefore not yet seen in official figures, the recovery is expected to continue.
Compared to the bleakest forecasts, even the dismal second quarter number is somewhat of a relief. The Office of Fiscal Responsibility said a three-month lockdown could destroy GDP by a third, so a drop by one-fifth shows restoring a life to be normal.
Which industries are the most affected?
Each business and industry experienced this recession differently. The recovery is also very variable.
Some people were able to work from home anywhere, plugging in a laptop and working almost as usual. Others couldn’t do anything – hairdressers, for example, or some production line workers – but are now back to work.
Others are still trapped in nothing, like the bowling alleys, which are always closed.
Over the second quarter as a whole, accommodation and food services were the hardest hit.
With pubs and restaurants closed, or reduced to take-out-only service, and hotels banned from welcoming customers, the vast majority of their business has evaporated.
Production fell 86.7% for this unfortunate industry.
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This notice was published: 2020-09-09 07:30:11