Why an opportunity presents itself for the Tories in Wales | Political news

There are less than two weeks left before Wales chooses its new parliament on May 6.

The last time voters elected the Senedd, the policy was very different. Brexit was yet to come and David Cameron was Prime Minister.

But with the European referendum just weeks away, people have clearly expressed their antipathy to Brussels and the Westminster establishment.

The result contributed to the transformation of electoral politics.

UKIP has won the support of one in eight voters, insignificant in the context of first-party elections, but surprisingly effective when a proportional representation system is used to allocate seats. Seven UKIP candidates were elected, winning 12% of the total seats.

The Labor Party, the dominant party in Wales, saw its share of the vote drop and was only saved from disaster because of the size of the majorities it defended. Remarkably, his only defeat came at the hands of Plaid Cymru where his boss, Leanne Wood, would claim victory in Rhondda.

The two parties that until recently formed the national coalition government fared little better. The Conservatives were reduced to just 11 seats and were overtaken by Plaid Cymru. A worse fate awaited the Liberal Democrats, reduced from five seats to one, finishing fifth in the popular vote.

Wales would vote to leave the EU by a margin of 53/47%. UKIP’s usefulness in providing a vehicle for expressing anti-EU sentiment was temporary. In the 2017 general election his share of the vote fell, with both main parties benefiting: Labor winning nearly half of the vote in Wales, Tories a third.

But Westminster was not yet done with Brexit. Pro-leave Labor voters in Wales saw their party delay the process of leaving. The general election of December 2019 revealed the backlash. Labor suffered an eight point drop in the vote and contributed six constituencies to Boris Johnson’s landslide.

Wales offers the opportunity to assess …