Local elections: how to measure the success and failure of each party on May 6 | Political news

The elections for council and mayor across England on May 6 are a challenge for the two main party leaders.

Boris Johnson must demonstrate that his victory in the general election marked a revamp of the Conservative brand.

It is imperative that Sir Keir Starmer dramatically increases the number of Labor Councils and Advisors rather than the losses suffered under his predecessor.

It will be difficult to judge the outcome of these elections. The pandemic has meant postponing the 2020 elections, most of which take place in large urban areas outside London, and moving them instead this year. These councils therefore join these competitions, mainly covering the English counties, already scheduled for 2021.

This unprecedented move to merge what are normally two separate local election cycles into one has implications for judging results. This is because the two rounds of elections were last held in different years. The contexts are different.

Each year we estimate a national equivalent vote based on what happened in the local elections.

The 2016 vote, the benchmark for elections slated for 2020, was a mediocre year for the Tories and a decent year for Labor who won almost half of the available seats. Weeks later, we voted to leave the European Union.

In 2017, a year that sets the right context for England’s county elections, the Tories defeated Labor and won six out of 10. Weeks later we voted in a general election meant to bolster the narrow majority of Theresa May, but which resulted in a suspended parliament.

Sir Keir called the election “tough”. If he only refers to the precedent established in 2016, I agree.

Most councils with elections in 2016 operate with “elections by third parties” and also held one in 2019.